Saturday, July 1, 2017

THE FRIENDLY SKIES

UPDATE: 
Judge Jason Dimitris was elevated from County Court to Circuit Court this week, replacing the retired Judge Brennan. Congrats. The Captain has the details in the comments.  And that means a county court spot has opened and the dominoes are lining up. 

While money isn't everything, we will just note that, as indicated below, most members of the judiciary fly coach...

Warren Buffet, commentating on the success in investing in airlines, once famously quipped that “the best thing that could have happened to investors who want to invest in airlines is if Wilbur would have shot Orville from the sky”.

Airlines are difficult companies to run.  A little history: in the 1960’s the emerging Jet age was regulated by the Civil Aeronautics Board which regulated interstate air routes for commercial airlines (the ol’ commerce clause of fame and misfortune rears it’s ugly head yet again).  Airlines that wanted the lucrative New York-Miami route (remember Eastern Airlines and Pan Am?) would be awarded that route IF they also agreed to the less lucrative New York-Dayton route.  Fares were also regulated because flying and interstate travel were deemed to be “in the public interest” (the economic philosophy of altruistic-collectivism for those of you paying philosophical attention).

Some capitalists found a loophole- intra-state travel was not regulated. While this didn’t mean a lot for say, New Mexico, it did offer an opportunity for regional airlines in Texas and California. Thus was born Southwest Airlines which made a small fortune flying from Dallas to Houston to San Antonio.

Economically, inter-state travel was so expensive because of regulation and the obligation to fly money-losing routes, that adjusted for inflation, cost-per-mile basis was double what it was today.  The system worked in a way. Air travel was luxurious. Airlines competed for customers on their routes, but mostly they lost money.

Enter James Earl Carter the 39th POTUS, Senator Edward Moore Kennedy and his bright aide Stephen Breyer. Kennedy was a frequent critic of the airlines, and Carter was dealing with a spike in gas prices and airlines were facing bankruptcy.  And just like that- a bunch-a-liberal do-gooders de-regulated an industry. Yep, it wasn’t the republicans (their weren’t that many around in those post-Watergate days anyway) it was a democratic congress and president that unleashed the power of capitalism and competition on the airline industry.  

Airlines sprung up and went away- who remembers Air-Tran, not to mention Trump-Air?  Eventually, as the market predicted, the industry consolidated as some airlines failed because of market inefficiency, and successful ones bought-out smaller ones and a few regional powerhouses like Southwest and Alaska Air emerged. And thus we flew through the 80’s and 90’s with cheap travel (cheap oil and gas) and a strong dollar and a flying stock market and Rumpole became well known for flying to Paris or London or Berlin for a long weekend as the stock-market roared with new tech stocks and Bill Clinton cast a longing and lonely eye at White House interns.

But then, like the bubble stocks that fueled our European travels, we landed, the economy landed, 9/11 occurred, oil prices soared, and airlines collapsed under new security and energy costs. By the end of the Obama administration, the sea of airline red ink was so vast, that Moses couldn’t have parted it on his best day, and the loses of that decade wiped out the existence of every single dollar of airline profit ever made since the 1960’s.

Warren Buffet- he’s a pretty smart guy. You invest against his recommendations at your own risk.

To survive, airlines needed to do a few basic things. 1) Fly full. Every trip. Every seat maximized for what investors call the -dollar-per-seat-per-mile basis. 2) Fly profitable routes- which means flying though hubs. Shuttling passengers from New York to Atlanta to Chicago and then dumping them on a small regional to get to Dayton became the way to survive in a competitive market. This is capitalism and competition for better or worse. Seats became smaller. No more meals. Take a small bag of peanuts and watch your ipad and be quiet. 3) Monetarize everything- EVERYTHING. A few more inches of leg room costs more. Exit rows cost more. Getting on first costs more. Flying for a two week vacation? Have fun! If you decide to bring a change of clothes in a bag or two, that will cost $25/bag. Want a slice of cheese and a few grapes at 32, 000 feet? $11.50 please.

And now on the Friendly Skies of United.

That passenger was a complete moron. An idiot. And as it turns out- a convicted felon who as a doctor traded sex for pain pills and was placed on probation by a hospital he worked at after he somehow managed to get his license back.

Every airline ticket comes with the agreement that your seat is NOT guaranteed. This has been the case since Carter and Kennedy channeled their inner-Rockefeller. Everybody knows flights are overbooked. And if you are asked to leave- then like the couple just before the doctor- you get up, you grumble, you threaten to call Rumpole or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio and Rachel Maddow on MSNBC and your cousin Arnie who knows a guy who works with the CEO of United, and you grab your back-pack and you shuffle off the plane.

That doctor caused this incident. He had two good working feet. He could have gotten off the plane. Throughout our life we all encounter situations that we don’t like or are unfair. The obnoxious person who steals your parking space at Walmart as you are preparing to back into. The person who cuts the line at Joes (guilty as charged).  The cop who tells you to do something she has no right to tell you to do.

What you do in those situations, is you take a deep breath, understand that being adult means sometimes life isn’t fair, and you back down, you get off the plane and you move on with your life. You tell yourself you believe in Karma and that the cop, or the parking spot thief, or the nasty airline employee will get theirs-if not tomorrow then in their next life when they get continually ripped off by their Chinese-food delivery service and don’t get the spare ribs they ordered and were dying for- and you MOVE ON.

Four year-olds (and many people who wear black robes in Broweird) throw tantrums when they don’t get what they want and they discover that life isn’t fair. Adults deal with the situation as adults.

United was wrong. The cops who dragged the doctor were wrong. But this doctor caused the problem. He didn’t act like a responsible individual. He’s not the guy we want operating the emergency exit (much less a sphygmomanometer on our arm in the doctor’s office), and he’s probably the guy talking on his cell-phone right through take-off. He’s the type of guy who steals your parking spot at Walmart; he cuts in line at the bank; he is nasty to the people who take your order at the drive-through; he doesn’t tip hotel maids when he checks out of the Hampton Inn after a mid-afternoon illicit tryst. The world owes HIM because he has an MD degree. And they say trial lawyers can be obnoxious.  

Airline travel is no longer fun (but those shops at airports are getting nicer). Small seats. Full planes. No food. Long delays. Nasty employees. It’s all part of the price we pay for affordable travel. So understand what it is, and that one time you get bumped for the crew that has to get to Indianapolis  to get that jet of people to Albuquerque,  so that a crew can hot-seat to Albuquerque to get that flight to Minneapolis- you get your stuff and put on your ear phones and turn on Public Enemy (Fight the Power!)  and walk off the plane like an adult with your head held high, albeit a bit smaller.

Or do what we do- Fly NetJets.

From Occupied America, where the planes are full, the skies not friendly, and the president is mad, turn on Public Enemy and Fight the Power!




THE FRIENDLY SKIES
4/ 5
Oleh